Crimean Solution- A zero Sum Game
Crimean Solution- A zero Sum Game
On 24th February Even before the Tymoshenko and her supporters got time to sit back and take things in perspective and the pro Tymoshenko forces has started looking for Viktor Yanukovych, the deposed President was already making way for either Crimea or Russia, via Easter Ukraine which is still the Russian speaking stronghold.
On the 27th all eyes turned to Autonomous Republic of Crimea, when a group of unidentified armed men forced entry intro Crimean Parliament and hoisted a Russian Flag.
On the 28th February, the world and Crimea woke up to images of armed men (some claimed Russian soldiers) without insignia s, taking over Simferopol Airport and later in the day taking over the Sevastopol International airport. On the same day the Deposed president re appeared in southern Russia and called the coupe illegal and warned of the consequences.
Alarm bells went ringing simultaneously in the entire West and by evening President Obama was belting out threats (“Aggression would Come at a cost”) and blaming Russia of the aggression, while Russia denied any involvement.
Within 24 hours there were claims that the Russians had blockaded the Balaclava harbor, Russian Military helicopters were moved to Sevastopol and approximately 2000 Russian Airborne troops landed in Crimea thus completing the physical takeover of the autonomous region. These claims were however never confirmed. This was followed by official request by Crimean Prime Minister for help to Russia to maintain peace. Kiev meanwhile denounced the government of Crimea and Federation council on request of Vladimir Putin agreed to allow Russian Intervention in Crimea to safeguard Russian Geopolitical Interests.
As of today the status Quo remains with Crimea having officially ceded to Russia and the conflict has spread to parts of Eastern and Southern Ukraine which is dominated by a Russian speaking Majority. This incident has in one go pulled all the strings of foreign diplomacy and the outcome remains to be seen.
The Past
Crimea under the late 18th century remained in geopolitical insignificance ruled and invaded consecutively by Mongols, and then the Ottoman Empire. This piece of land gained its first international spotlight in the Russo-Turkic war and became a part of Russia in 1783. However it soon became a Neutral territory as an aftermath of Crimean war. It remained so till the outbreak of Russian revolution and was the last battle ground for incumbent monarchy. In 1921 Crimea as assimilated in the USSR. Crimea saw many a bloody battles during the World War II.
During the soviet days in 1954 Crimean Oblast was transferred to Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic. Many say that Crimea was given away by Khrushchev when in a state of stupor after a drinking binge. When USSR collapsed Crimea went to Ukraine and was a cause of tension between the two countries.
The solution came in form of an Autonomous republic of Crimea which though under the reign of Ukraine was free to have its own constitution and a President.
Fault Line
The fault lines between Ukraine and Russia are more than territorial.
Ukraine in 15th century (courtsey wikipedia)
In 15th century while Crimea was shifting hands between the Russians and Turks, Ukraine (most of western and central was a part of Polish empire). Under the Polish Influence along with Ukrainian and look west policy, Catholicism spread in these parts. The eastern part in the meanwhile remained under the Russian Orthodox Church and Russia remained the language of communication.
These fault lines developed into major ethno-linguistic divide that still dominates the Ukrainian life (including Crimea). The same trends can be seen in the recent political election and east west leanings.
The Ukrainian divide (Courtesy Washington post)
EU Footprint: The birth of a crisis
The real crisis Started Post Orange revolution which many believed and still believe was funded by USA. The present President was blamed of rigging the Elections of 2005 and after a re-election his adversary Yushchenko was declared a winner With Yulia Tymoshenko by a very thin margin of 3%.
Yanukovych returned to power as president in 2006 with Tymoshenko coming back to power in 2007.
Amid the power game between a Russian backed Yanukovych and pro west Yulia, Ukraine plunged into Economic crises in 2008-09 with economy nose-diving by 15%. The main reasons were attributed to steep fall in Steel prices one of the major exports of Ukraine and cutting off of Gas supplies by GAZPROM due to nonpayment of dues.
The underlying reasons for Russian blockade were however warming of Yulia Tymoshenko to EU in 2008 over issues such as free trade and visa free travel. This was a veiled attempt by Kremlin to stop the spread of EU and NATO to east. The spread of EU to Ukraine and Black sea meant Control of Russian pipelines to Europe, NATO in Russian backyard, and a jumping board for NATO to caucus and middle east.
Russia would never have it that way.
Yulia Yanukovych Face Off
Amid the economic crisis Putin negotiated a deal with Yulia and restarted the gas supplies. After the crises however Russia drew a lot of criticism from EU and USA over arm twisting Ukraine. 2010 was election year and Yulia and Yanukovych faced off once again. There was mudslinging and blames of rigging the polls. Yanukovych allegedly won the polls. While leaving office Yulia accused Yanukovych of corruption and to return the favor Yanukovych opened many cases against Yulia, accusing her of corruption and finally managed to get her imprisoned on the gas deal she had struck with Russia. The judgment was called farce by almost everybody in Europe and around the world.
Putin’s Approach
After Exit of Yulia and with Yanukovych at the helm of affairs Russia exerted tremendous pressure to ensure Ukraine did not go EU way. Carrot and stick policy by banning many imports from Ukraine in 2010 and alternatively by lending $15 billion as aid in 2014 were adopted. Yanukovych’s kowtowing to Kremlin was not taken well by Brussels and didn’t go with pro west citizens of Ukraine.
Back Lash
The lending of the $15 billion by Kremlin and cutting of gas prices by 33% was seen by pro west citizens as Russia softening to Ukraine and Yanukovych warming up to Kremlin. This sounded the death knell to Signing of Association agreement (AA) and Deep and comprehensive Free trade agreement (DCFTA), a step way from EU. The clashes between the authorities started on 21st November 2013. Later joined by University students the protests enlarged in base.
What remains to be seen is the involvement and direct nature of EU and USA in firing up protests. The protests led to greater economic instability increasing the demand for currency. With Ukraine on brink of a default in spite of financial aid by Russia due to growing protests and life coming to stand still.
The protests continued for a month’s till on 18 February 2014 some 20000 protestors clashed with the government forces which lead to a death of over 100 protestors and 7 police men. On 21st February President Yanukovich signed a compromise deal with opposition leaders. On 22nd February Yanukovich was impeached and Yulia Tymoshenko was released from prison who flew to Dublin to attend a meet of European peoples party and also met the head of major EU states.
Russian roulette
As the status Quo prevails with Russia occupying Crimea and Putin denying any Russian involvement the west has come down heavily criticizing Putin for his impunity threatening, unleashing of cold war days.
Many have claimed it’s a lose-lose situation for Putin and will isolate him.
So what does Putin achieve out of his incursion into Crimea?
He has successfully blocked an EU-NATO incursion in the black sea while safeguarding his naval bases. A NATO base in Black sea would mean EU projection of power to caucus, threat to Iran, and a possible stopover for Israeli planes in a future conflict with Iran.
A NATO base would also mean more direct involvement in Syria which they cannot guarantee from Turkey as even though Turkey a member of EU has its own ax to grind in the middle-east. It would also ensure securing old and gas pipelines that supply to Europe.
The move would have also blocked the Russian access to Sea of Marmara and the Mediterranean and thus cut the Russian influence sphere drastically.
In one single master stroke Putin Managed to align the Russian speaking majority with him, safeguard Russian naval bases, secure the oil and gas fields of Crimea check EU’s growing influence in Caucus which would have jeopardized Russia-Georgia situation and bolstered its allies in Syria and Iran.
American Gambit
America with its new foreign policy which came into effect after President Obama decided to focus more on strength of diplomacy than on strength of arms has been forced to review its option. America has been slowly but surely reducing its military footprint. It started by pulling out troops from Iraq then came Afghanistan. However mistakes were made when after supporting Syrian rebels the US backed out. A lot of saber rattling was done on Iranian N option and speaking for its allies in S Korea and Japan with China.
Nixon with all his follies was a wonderful poker player and realized the value of a good bluff. He proved it by sending 7th fleet to bay of Bengal and averted what could have been a major Asian confrontation in 1971.
However Obama administration has repeatedly shown the world that it lacks the will to back up its actions with words. The best Obama and Kerry could do were reiterate that Crimea was an integral part of Ukraine (Which it is not) and that US would pull out of G8 summit. They threatened Russia of Isolation and economic consequences.
The fact however remains that the foreign policy adopted by Obama administration in last 4 years has seen US on the wrong end of the stick. They have antagonized Israeli by going to talks with Iran while Iran isn’t a friend any more than it was 10 years ago. This has also made the sunni dominated middle east wary. All talk and no action on Syria has left the Middle East red faced. It has also proved to the extremist organization that US has lost the will to fight.
Pakistan has found a new friend in China and is not willing to let US use its bases any longer. Except for Britain the EU has understood that Euros loss is Dollars gain and has started competing with US interests in trade. There have also been bloopers with US spying on German head of state. China and India as usual maintain distant Asian aloofness and will not be drawn into this conflagration.
Last but not the least the US people don’t want US money spent on an international excursion which does not directly involve US. This leaves US very much isolated.
The German Angle
The key to NATO intervention however lies with Germany. Germany in the past year has emerges as the most influential country in mainland Europe. For once Italy and France are willing to follow Germany’s lead. This is due to economic leadership of the state and political role played in the EU crises. Germany has proved over the past few years that EU is capable of solving its own problems without outside intervention and Germany holds the key.
This time Germany will refuse to play ball with US on Crimean question. This will happen partly due to sour US-German relations due to competing interests economically and partly due to German trade relations with Russia. Germany industries need the GAZPROM oil to maintain its economic superiority and the Russians need German money to keep it running.
In fact Germany, France and Russia together had opposed the inclusion of Ukraine and Georgia in NATO in 2008.
The Stale Mate
Putin knows the problems Obama administration faces in the world and at home. As the situation stands there is a stalemate and the stalemate will continue. Russia has taken over Crimea and is unlikely to give it up and EU-USA won’t intervene. Russia has recently found a new set of allies, and is not as dependent on a weakened Europe as it used to be. The threat of sanctions won’t do much.
After Crimea
The situation after Crimea could worsen as Putin will try to wrest eastern and southern Ukraine out of Ukrainian control or at most foment unrest in the region between Russian speaking and Ukrainian speaking people. NATO will react by strengthening Poland Hungary Georgia and Romania. Turkey will be pushed to let the leased out Black Sea bases to NATO become Russia centric. Russia in response will arm and support Iran to maintain balance of power in the region and will support Syria by supplying arms via Iran –Iraq-Syria route.
Possible Solutions
- 1. Accept Crimea as a Russian Interest and stop efforts to include Ukraine and Georgia in EU. Russia sees it as an attempt to encirclement.
- 2. Derecognize the illegitimate government of Yulia Tymoshenko and call for new polls in Ukraine. Without Crimea Yulia will win and there will be a Pro-EU government in Kiev.
- 3. Involve Germany in influencing Russia to bring Assad to table.
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